據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)6月30日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)天然氣期貨周五上漲約2%，原因包括輸送到液化天然氣出口工廠的天然氣量增加、歐洲天然氣價(jià)格上漲以及美國(guó)天氣預(yù)報(bào)稱，比正常情況下更熱的天氣將持續(xù)到7月中旬，尤其是在得克薩斯州。

據(jù)得克薩斯州電網(wǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商得州電力可靠性委員會(huì)(ERCOT)稱，由于熱浪繼續(xù)侵襲該州，該州的用電量在當(dāng)周周二創(chuàng)下歷史新高后仍然居高不下。

極端高溫會(huì)增加燃?xì)獍l(fā)電機(jī)為空調(diào)發(fā)電而燃燒的電量，尤其是在大部分電力來(lái)自燃?xì)獍l(fā)電廠的得克薩斯州。根據(jù)聯(lián)邦能源數(shù)據(jù)，2022年，該州約49%的電力來(lái)自燃?xì)獍l(fā)電廠，其余大部分來(lái)自風(fēng)能（22%）、煤炭（16%）、核能（8%）和太陽(yáng)能（4%）。

美國(guó)東部時(shí)間當(dāng)天上午10時(shí)44分（格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間14時(shí)44分），紐約商品交易所8月交貨的即月天然氣期貨上漲5.4美分，漲幅2.0%，至每百萬(wàn)英熱單位2.755美元。

本周，美國(guó)原油期貨合約上漲約1%，有望實(shí)現(xiàn)自2022年4月以來(lái)的首次連續(xù)四周上漲。

本月，美國(guó)原油期貨合約在5月份下跌約6%后上漲了約21%。

在第一季度下跌了50%之后，本季度美國(guó)天然氣合約上漲了約24%。

在歐洲，荷蘭(TTF)基準(zhǔn)天然氣價(jià)格上漲約11%，達(dá)到一周來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)，約為每百萬(wàn)英熱單位12美元。

供求關(guān)系

據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)提供商Refinitiv表示，到目前為止，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的日均天然氣產(chǎn)量從5月份的1025億立方英尺降至6月份的1015億立方英尺。

然而，按日計(jì)算，過(guò)去三天的日產(chǎn)量增加18億桶，周五達(dá)到1020億桶/日的兩周高點(diǎn)。

據(jù)氣象學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)，至少在7月15日之前，美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州的天氣仍將比正常情況更熱。

根據(jù)Refinitiv預(yù)測(cè)，隨著天氣變熱，包括出口在內(nèi)的美國(guó)天然氣需求將從本周的979億立方英尺/日上升至下周的1042億立方英尺/日，兩周后隨著氣溫略有緩和，需求將下降至1036億立方英尺/日。本周和下周的預(yù)測(cè)與Refinitiv周四的預(yù)測(cè)相似。

6月迄今為止，美國(guó)對(duì)墨西哥的天然氣日均出口量從5月的62億立方英尺上升至66億立方英尺；相比之下，2021年6月的月度最高數(shù)據(jù)為68億立方英尺。

到目前為止，美國(guó)七大液化天然氣出口工廠的天然氣流量從5月份的130億桶/日降至6月份的116億桶/日。由于切尼爾能源公司位于路易斯安那州的薩賓帕斯和得克薩斯州的Corpus Christi等幾個(gè)終端設(shè)施的維護(hù)，這一數(shù)字遠(yuǎn)低于4月份140億桶/日的月度最高點(diǎn)。

然而，當(dāng)周周三，七個(gè)液化天然氣出口廠的原料氣總量上升至128億立方英尺/日的四周高點(diǎn)，前一周流入薩賓帕斯終端的天然氣量躍升約20億立方英尺/日，達(dá)到約43億立方英尺/日。相比之下，今年迄今為止，薩賓帕斯的原料氣量為45億立方英尺/日，2022年全年為45億平方英尺/日。

郝芬 譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

U.S. natural gas prices up 2% on rising LNG feedgas, lingering hot weather

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday as the daily amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants increases, rising prices in Europe, and on forecasts for hotter-than-normal U.S. weather to continue through mid-July, especially in Texas.

In Texas, power use remained high after setting a record on Tuesday as a heat wave continues to bake the state, according to the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.4 cents, or 2.0%, to $2.755 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:44 a.m. EDT (1444 GMT).

For the week, the U.S. contract was up about 1%, putting it on track to rise for a fourth week in a row for the first time since April 2022.

For the month, the U.S. contract was up about 21% after falling about 6% in May.

For the quarter, the U.S. contract was up about 24% after dropping by a record 50% in the first quarter.

In Europe, gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe jumped about 11% to A one-week high of around $12 per mmBtu.

Supply and demand

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from a record 102.5 bcfd in May.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to rise 1.8 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-week high of 102.0 bcfd on Friday.

Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least July 15.

Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.9 bcfd this week to 104.2 bcfd next week as the weather turns hotter, before easing to 103.6 bcfd in two weeks as temperatures moderate a bit. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.

U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.6 bcfd so far in June, up from 6.2 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.8 bcfd in June 2021.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.6 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.

On a daily basis, however, total feedgas to the seven LNG export facilities rose to a four-week high of 12.8 bcfd on Wednesday as the amount of gas flowing to Sabine jumped about 2 bcfd over the past week to around 4.3 bcfd. That compares with average feedgas to Sabine of 4.5 bcfd so far this year and 4.5 bcfd in all of 2022.