據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年7月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于石油需求創(chuàng)新高和供應(yīng)減少將導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)巨大的供應(yīng)缺口，油價(jià)到今年年底將從目前的每桶80美元升至每桶86美元。

高盛投資銀行石油研究主管Daan Struyven周一對(duì)CNBC的“亞洲財(cái)經(jīng)談 Squawk Box Asia ”節(jié)目表示，由于需求達(dá)到歷史新高，我們預(yù)計(jì)下半年市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)相當(dāng)大的缺口，第三季度缺口將接近200萬(wàn)桶/天。

雖然今年夏天的石油需求將創(chuàng)下歷史新高，但供應(yīng)正在萎縮。歐佩克+減產(chǎn)和出口以及美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)放緩也將在今年第三季度的巨額赤字中發(fā)揮作用。

高盛投資銀行Struyve表示，我們預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)原油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)將大幅放緩，從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始，每天的連續(xù)放緩速度不少于200桶。

根據(jù)貝克休斯公司7月21日發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，上周美國(guó)的在用鉆機(jī)總數(shù)下降到669部。今年到目前為止，貝克休斯公司估計(jì)美國(guó)在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)減少了100多部。上周的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量也比2019年初大流行之前的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量減少了406部。

同樣在上周，油田服務(wù)巨頭哈里伯頓公司和貝克休斯公司都表示，北美市場(chǎng)的鉆井需求走軟。

與此同時(shí)，已經(jīng)有證據(jù)表明歐佩克+的原油供應(yīng)量在減少。

沙特阿拉伯的原油出口量也開(kāi)始下降，5月份降至700萬(wàn)桶/天以下，這是幾個(gè)月來(lái)的第一次。由于沙特阿拉伯在7月和8月將原油日產(chǎn)量再削減100萬(wàn)桶，全球最大出口國(guó)的原油出口量可能進(jìn)一步下降。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Prices Rising On Record Demand

Oil prices are set to rise to $86 per barrel at year-end, from $80 now, as record-high oil demand and lowered supply will lead to a large market deficit.

“We expect pretty sizable deficits in the second half with deficits of almost 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter as demand reaches an all-time high,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” program on Monday.  

While demand is set for a record high this summer, supply is shrinking. The production and export cuts from OPEC+ and the slowdown in U.S. oil production growth will also play a part in large deficits in the third quarter this year.

According to Goldman’s Struyven, “We expect U.S. crude supply growth to slow down pretty significantly to a sequential pace of just 200 barrels per day from here.”

The total rig U.S. count fell to 669 last week, according to Baker Hughes data on Friday. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of more than 100 active drilling rigs. Last week’s count is also 406 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Also last week, oilfield services giants Halliburton and Baker Hughes both signaled softer demand for drilling on the North American market.

At the same time, there is already evidence of lower supply from OPEC+.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have also started to decline, to below 7 million bpd in May, for the first time in many months. Crude shipments out of the world’s top exporter could further decline as Saudi Arabia is now cutting its production by 1 million bpd in July and August.