據(jù)彭博社7月31日?qǐng)?bào)道稱，由于有跡象表明市場(chǎng)正在緊縮，石油價(jià)格創(chuàng)下一年多來的最大月度漲幅，據(jù)估計(jì)，就在歐佩克+減產(chǎn)之際，原油需求正以歷史最高水平的速度增長(zhǎng)。

西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油在連續(xù)五周上漲后保持在每桶80美元以上，價(jià)格升至4月份以來的最高水平。該美國(guó)原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格本月上漲了近14%，有望創(chuàng)下2022年1月以來的最大漲幅。這是近二十年來七月份的最佳表現(xiàn)。

高盛集團(tuán)分析師Daan Struyven和Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby在一份報(bào)告中表示，“歷史最高水平的高需求和沙特的供應(yīng)削減已經(jīng)帶來了原油赤字，該報(bào)告重申了布倫特原油到12月將達(dá)到每桶86美元的預(yù)測(cè)，市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)放棄了對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的悲觀情緒”。

油價(jià)連續(xù)上漲意味著紐約原油期貨已經(jīng)抹去了年初以來的跌幅，市場(chǎng)預(yù)期美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(fed)即將結(jié)束貨幣緊縮周期，這也在美元走軟之際提振了市場(chǎng)人氣。將于本周公布的美國(guó)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)可能預(yù)示著健康的需求前景，而最大的進(jìn)口國(guó)則在加緊實(shí)施刺激措施，以提振經(jīng)濟(jì)。

歐佩克+關(guān)鍵國(guó)家沙特阿拉伯等供應(yīng)減少改善了原油前景。

隨著原油價(jià)格突破近期區(qū)間，投機(jī)者加大了對(duì)整個(gè)能源綜合體的看漲押注。WTI和全球基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油的凈多頭組合已升至三個(gè)月來的最高水平。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Oil Set for Best Month Since Early 2022 as Market Tightens

Oil headed for its biggest monthly gain in more than a year on signs the market is tightening, with estimates that crude demand is running at a record clip just as OPEC+ cuts back production.

West Texas Intermediate held above $80 a barrel after a run of five weekly gains that lifted prices to the highest since April. The US crude benchmark has rallied almost 14% this month, putting it on course for the biggest advance since January 2022. It’s the best performance for July in almost two decades.

“Record high demand and Saudi supply cuts have brought back deficits,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note that reaffirmed a forecast for Brent at $86 a barrel by December. “The market has abandoned its growth pessimism.”

Oil’s string of advances mean futures in New York have erased their year-to-date losses, with expectations that the Federal Reserve is close to ending its cycle of monetary tightening also aiding sentiment as the dollar weakens. US employment data due this week is likely to signal a healthy demand outlook, while top importer presses on with stimulus to boost its economy.

A reduction of supply from OPEC+ linchpins Saudi Arabia  has improved the outlook for crude. Earlier this month, 

Speculators have boosted bullish wagers across the energy complex as crude prices broke out of their recent range. Combined net long positions on WTI and global benchmark Brent have swelled to the highest in three months.