最近幾周，汽油和其他餾分燃料價(jià)格的上漲速度超過(guò)了上游原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格

汽油和其他餾分油價(jià)格上漲背后的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是，在需求居高不下的情況下，煉油廠利用率卻在下降

燃料價(jià)格的任何上漲都將受到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他國(guó)家央行的密切關(guān)注，因?yàn)槿剂蟽r(jià)格可能對(duì)通脹壓力產(chǎn)生重大影響

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月4日?qǐng)?bào)道，最近幾周，汽油和其他餾分燃料價(jià)格的上漲速度快于上游原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格。由于主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體通脹放緩，世界各國(guó)央行加息周期似乎接近尾聲，能源市場(chǎng)的反彈可能引發(fā)擔(dān)憂。我們將探討最近汽油和其他餾分油市場(chǎng)價(jià)格上漲背后的主要原因，以及這種情況將如何進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。

原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格上漲

當(dāng)觀察餾分油價(jià)格的變化時(shí)，最重要的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是上游產(chǎn)品的成本。從4月底到7月初，布倫特原油價(jià)格在71美元至79美元的區(qū)間內(nèi)交易了兩個(gè)多月，自6月最后一周以來(lái)一直在上漲，并在7月第一周突破了這個(gè)價(jià)格區(qū)間。在過(guò)去的一周里，布倫特原油價(jià)格收盤每桶高達(dá)85美元，并在8月2日星期三以略高于83美元的價(jià)格結(jié)算。WTI價(jià)格的情況與此類似，該基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格上周每桶曾短暫攀升至80美元上方，目前僅略低于80美元。

原油價(jià)格的上漲源于歐佩克+的減產(chǎn)，更具體地說(shuō)是沙特阿拉伯等減產(chǎn)。今年6月，沙特阿拉伯宣布將在接下來(lái)的一個(gè)月每天再減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶。這一減產(chǎn)措施隨后延長(zhǎng)至8月份，最近有猜測(cè)稱沙特阿拉伯9月份也將繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)。與此同時(shí)，當(dāng)沙特阿拉伯在6月份首次宣布自愿減產(chǎn)時(shí)，它并沒(méi)有像許多人預(yù)期的那樣起到提振油價(jià)的作用。然而，隨著時(shí)間的推移，原油產(chǎn)量枯竭的現(xiàn)實(shí)和減產(chǎn)的連續(xù)延長(zhǎng)最終推動(dòng)了油價(jià)的上漲。

由于油價(jià)漲出其交易區(qū)間，交易活動(dòng)加劇了油價(jià)上漲。正如路透社的約翰·肯普所指出的那樣，由于原油價(jià)格上漲，投資者紛紛回補(bǔ)空頭頭寸，這進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)了油價(jià)上漲走勢(shì)。盡管與去年相比，今年的原油市場(chǎng)相當(dāng)?shù)兔裕S多看漲的投資者認(rèn)為，7月初的原油價(jià)格區(qū)間突破將引發(fā)樂(lè)觀情緒，認(rèn)為原油價(jià)格今年可能會(huì)回升至每桶90美元以上，甚至更高。

煉油廠利用率下降

汽油和其他餾分油價(jià)格上漲背后的另一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是，在需求居高不下的情況下，煉油廠利用率有所下降。據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，今年歐洲的汽油需求恢復(fù)得很好，“法國(guó)、德國(guó)、西班牙和意大利的汽油消費(fèi)量都出現(xiàn)了同比增長(zhǎng)”。與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)正處于“駕駛季節(jié)”，即美國(guó)陣亡將士紀(jì)念日和勞動(dòng)節(jié)周末之間的夏季，汽油需求在此期間達(dá)到年度峰值。

在高需求的背景下，最近有幾個(gè)問(wèn)題影響了煉油廠的利用率。在歐洲，殼牌公司由于泄漏問(wèn)題宣布于6月初暫時(shí)關(guān)閉佩尼斯煉油廠，但沒(méi)有提供有關(guān)問(wèn)題原因或關(guān)閉時(shí)間的進(jìn)一步信息。位于鹿特丹港的佩尼斯煉油廠是歐洲最大的煉油廠，每天可加工大約40萬(wàn)桶原油。在大西洋彼岸，埃克森美孚公司不得不在7月底關(guān)閉其美國(guó)第五大煉油廠巴吞魯日煉油廠，進(jìn)行意外維修，這可能會(huì)影響到該煉油廠整個(gè)夏天的剩余時(shí)間。

熱浪影響煉油能力

除了特定煉油廠的問(wèn)題外，最近席卷美國(guó)南部大部分地區(qū)的熱浪也影響了該地區(qū)的煉油能力。極端高溫天氣導(dǎo)致煉油廠減少原油加工量，以避免損壞任何設(shè)備。煉油廠問(wèn)題的積累效應(yīng)，以及隨著夏季的過(guò)去，原油加工量的自然放緩，意味著美國(guó)煉油廠的利用率從6月的第一周到7月底下降了3.1%。去年同期下降2%，而2019年僅下降0.2%。

未來(lái)，燃料價(jià)格的任何上漲都將受到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和其他國(guó)家央行的密切關(guān)注，因?yàn)槿剂蟽r(jià)格可能對(duì)通脹壓力產(chǎn)生重大影響。此外，在過(guò)去幾天里，這些市場(chǎng)的上行軌跡似乎已經(jīng)有所放緩。這些產(chǎn)品的庫(kù)存緊張，以及貿(mào)易商的頭寸和煉油廠的利用率，將是未來(lái)幾個(gè)月原油價(jià)格發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下： 

Distillate Prices Soar On The Back Of Refinery Issues And Expensive Crude

·     The price of gasoline and other distillate fuels have rallied in recent weeks at a faster pace than the upstream crude oil benchmark.

·     A key issue behind prices for gasoline and other distillates rising has been a reduction in refining utilization while demand has remained high.

·     Any rise in fuel prices will be watched closely by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as fuel prices can have large impacts on inflationary pressure.

The price of gasoline and other distillate fuels have rallied in recent weeks at a faster pace than the upstream crude oil benchmarks. At a time when central banks around the world appear to be nearing the end of their respective cycles of interest rate increases as inflation slows in major economies, a rally in energy markets could cause concern. In this week’s blog, we will look at the primary causes behind the recent price rises in gasoline and other distillate markets and how this situation may develop further.

Crude Oil Benchmarks on Increase

When looking at the changing prices of distillates, the most important driver is the costs of the upstream products. Having spent over two months, from late April to early July, trading within a range from $71 to $79, Brent crude oil prices have been on the rise since the last week of June and broke out of their range in the first week of July. In the past week, prices have closed as high as $85 and settled at just over $83 on Wednesday 2nd August. The story for WTI prices has been similar, with the benchmark having briefly climbed above the $80 mark last week and currently sitting just below it.

The increase in crude oil prices stems from the production cuts made by OPEC+, and more specifically by Saudi Arabia etc.. In June, Saudi Arabia announced it would be reducing production by 1 million barrels per day for the following month. This cut was subsequently extended for August, and more recently there has been speculation that it will continue for September as well. Meanwhile, when Saudi Arabia first announced its voluntary production cuts in June, it did not have the price-lifting effect that would have been expected by many. However as time has passed, the reality of the depleted production and consecutive extensions of the production cut have eventually driven oil prices upwards.

As oil prices rose out of their trading range, the price rise has been compounded by trading activity. As noted by John Kemp for Reuters, investors rushed to cover their short positions as prices rose, which further fuels the upward movement. While crude oil markets have been rather subdued this year in comparison to 2022, there are many bullish investors for whom the range-break of early July will spark optimism that crude price may yet climb back above the $90 mark and beyond this year.

Refineries Run Into Issues

Another key issue behind prices for gasoline and other distillates rising has been a reduction in refining utilization while demand has remained high. As reported by Bloomberg, gasoline demand in Europe has recovered well this year “with France, Germany, Spain and Italy all posting year-on-year increases in consumption.” The United States, meanwhile, is in the middle of its ‘driving season’, the summer months between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends during which gasoline demand reaches its annual peak.

Amid the high levels of demand, there have been several issues impacting refinery utilization recently. In Europe, Shell announced it would be temporarily closing its Pernis refinery plant in early June due to a leak, but provided no further information regarding the cause of the issue or the duration of the closure. Pernis, located in Rotterdam, is Europe’s largest refinery site and is capable of processing around 400,000 barrels per day. Across the Atlantic, Exxon Mobil had to close its Baton Rouge refinery site, the fifth largest in the US, in late July for unexpected repairs which may impact the plant for the rest of the summer.

Alongside issues at specific refineries, the recent heatwave that has scorched much of the southern United States has also impacted the region’s refining capability. Extremely high temperatures cause refineries to reduce processing in order to avoid damaging any equipment. The cumulative effect of the refinery issues, as well as a natural slowing of processing as the summer passes by, has meant that the refinery utilization rate in the US has dropped by 3.1% from the first week of June to the end of July. Over the same period in 2022 it declined by 2%, while in 2019 it only dropped by 0.2%.

Going forward, any rise in fuel prices will be watched closely by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as fuel prices can have large impacts on inflationary pressure. Furthermore, in the past few days there appears to have already been a softening of the upward trajectory these markets were taking. Tight inventories across these products, alongside traders positions and refinery utilization rates, will be key indicators for the price development in the coming months.